In just a while, exit poll results for Himachal and Gujarat elections will be published by different agencies. It will be a rough estimate of what can be expected on the polling day on 18th December.
Himachal polled on 9th November and a month later, polling in two phases were held for Gujarat. Today is the second phase of polling in Gujarat and so far voting percentage has been 57.56% till 4PM. In Himachal, there was a pretty steep 74% voting. In 1st phase of polling, Gujarat recorded 68% voter turnout.
Currently Himachal is being ruled by Congress and Gujarat by BJP. The Himalayan state has a tendancy of flipping in every five years, whereas BJP has been the dominant power in Gujarat for the last 22 years. Will the status quo be broken this time around? We will know soon.
18:05 PM: India Today-Axis Poll predicts 47% for BJP and 42% for Congress. It predicts Congress to win very comfortably in Saurashtra and North Gujarat.
18:02 PM: So the big message from most of the exit polls is BJP is likely to win around 110 seats. A little less than 2012, and much lesser than Amit Shah’s target of 150. But it would be enough to keep BJP in power in Gujarat for the next 5 years, if the polls are right.
17:58 PM: Sahara Samay-CNX survey predicts BJP to win 110-120 seats. Congress to take 65-75 seats.
C-Voter predicts 47.4% for BJP and 43.3% for Congress.
Jan Ki Baat- Republic predicts 115 for BJP and 65 for Congress. It predicts 2 for other parties.
17:50 PM: According to Times Now VMR, BJP to get 47% vote and Congress to get 41%. So Congress has managed to cut BJP’s lead, but it is not enough for them to form the next government in Gujarat, if the exit poll is correct.
17:45 PM: So far exit poll numbers should make BJP leaders happy. Not only they are winning in Himachal according to the polls, they may eke out a close win in Gujarat. Well it may be far cry from Amit Shah’s Mission 150, but the saffron party will be more than happy to scrape through considering the factors stacked against them.
17:44 PM: Now, the first results from ABP-CSDS exit polls have come. And they predict an absolute sweep for BJP in Saurasthra-Kutch area. Out of 54, BJP expected to win 31-37 seats (49% vote share). Congress is expected to win 16-22 seats (41% vote share). Others may win 0-2 seats.
17:39 PM: The Times Now-VMR numbers are provisional and will be updated later. They predict an extremely close contest in Saurashtra, knows as BJP hub. Out of 54 seats, BJP is predicted to win 28.
17:32 PM: According to Axis-My India poll, BJP all set to come back to power in Himachal Pradesh. It is set for a two-third majority. It may get 47-55 seats in the 68 member assembly. Congress may only get 13-20 seats if the exit poll turns out to be correct.
17:26 PM: The first exit polls for Gujarat has come now.
Times Now VMR predicts a narrow win for BJP. It is projecting 109 seats for BJP, 70 for Congress and 3 for others. It means BJP will be losing seats from 2012. A point needs to be kept in mind, that there is an error of 3% in the poll. So in a close election, if Congress gets 3% more than what has been projected, the final tally may look completely different.
17:22 PM: While we will soon be looking at the exit poll results, it needs to be reminded that these polls have been wrong in the past. Many of the exit polls got it completely wrong in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Delhi in the recent times.